Quantitative Models

Three models. 195 countries. Four scenarios.

The simulation infrastructure behind the framework. All models are available to founding partners and academic collaborators.

World SimulationAntithesis ModelAltHistory Models
One Civilisation World Simulation v13

The primary projection model. 195 countries, 49 modelling entities, nine revenue streams, and a Civilisational Balance Sheet — run forward from 2031 under phased country adoption across five waves. The simulation is illustrative, not predictive. Its value is not the precision of any single figure but the trajectory: a dedicated revenue stream, invested at institutional returns under a constitutional spending rule, produces fund assets that grow exponentially while distributions grow linearly.

Key parameters: 5.5% blended annual return (conservative relative to Norway's GPF-Global historical 6.3%), 3% constitutional spending rule, and a task displacement curve drawn from WEF (2020) estimates. Four scenario variants test the sensitivity to AI automation speed and China's participation.

$39tn
Projected
Fund AUM · 2053
$1,283tn
Projected
Fund AUM · 2086
2062
Year BASIC reaches 100% coverage
2097
Year fund output exceeds residual tax need
Civilisational Wealth Fund AUM · 2031–2086 · targeted delivery scenario
$1,283tn$942tn$335tn$39tn$02031$0.2tn20432053$39tn20622073$335tn2086$1,283tn
BASIC per citizen ($/yr) · in-kind service delivery value
$12,000$8,000$4,000$0ceiling2031$1,1572053$3,9092062$5,5642083$12,000
Constitutional ceiling: $12,000/yr at AI-optimised delivery efficiency. Reviewed every 25 years.
Universal Basic Dividend per citizen ($/yr) · cash surplus above BASIC
$12,000$8,000$4,000$0UBD = $0 until BASIC fully funded2062$482073$2,4962083$8,1792086$11,392
UBD activates once targeted BASIC coverage exceeds 100% (~2062). BASIC is always funded first.